Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4959
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4959 · SJU → MCO
departs 1:15 PM AT · arrives 4:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 9/30 14%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.