WN 4968 · BNA → DTW

departs 1:46 PM CT · arrives 4:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DTW that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4968 · BNA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?