WN 4971 · BWI → LAX

departs 2:41 PM ET · arrives 5:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4971 · BWI → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?