Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4972
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4972 · DAL → PHX
departs 10:15 PM CT · arrives 10:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±3 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 61% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 3.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.