WN 4974 · BWI → RSW

departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 44 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts44 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.79 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4974 · BWI → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?