Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4984
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4984 · SMF → ONT
departs 8:55 PM PT · arrives 10:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into ONT at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
ONT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.