Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4992
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4992 · ELP → LAX
departs 10:15 PM MT · arrives 11:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.