WN 5004 · MDW → HOU

departs 8:32 AM CT · arrives 11:08 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ HOU is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

HOU (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.73 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 5004 · MDW → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?