WN 500 · OMA → STL

departs 8:11 AM CT · arrives 9:37 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from OMA are usually not late

Weather at each end

OMA (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip2.88 in

STL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,433 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 500 · OMA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?