WN 5021 · ABQ → DEN

departs 2:01 PM MT · arrives 3:27 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 5021 · ABQ → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?