WN 5036 · TPA → MCI

departs 1:11 PM ET · arrives 3:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.27 in

MCI (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 5036 · TPA → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?