Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5050
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 5050 · LAS → OAK
departs 6:00 PM PT · arrives 7:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at OAK that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.