Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5056
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 5056 · LAS → RNO
departs 11:25 AM PT · arrives 12:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.