WN 5098 · LAS → ABQ

departs 5:41 PM PT · arrives 8:19 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ABQ (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 5098 · LAS → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?