Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5126
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 5126 · SJC → LAS
departs 7:35 PM PT · arrives 9:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.