Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 533 · BNA → HOU
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 3:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.