WN 534 · AUS → TPA

departs 5:17 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility6.66667 mi Precip1.60 in

TPA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 534 · AUS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?