Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 561 · HNL → KOA
departs 1:15 PM HT · arrives 2:10 PM HT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 12%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at KOA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to KOA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
1pm departures from HNL are often late
↑
KOA is prone to delays
↓
HNL usually runs smoothly
↓
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.61 in
KOA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.