WN 578 · TPA → SJU

departs 8:06 PM ET · arrives 11:15 PM AT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ TPA usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

SJU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 578 · TPA → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?