Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 586 · DAL → RNO
departs 8:55 PM CT · arrives 10:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 3.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.