Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 586 · LIT → DAL
departs 7:05 PM CT · arrives 8:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±2 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 3.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.