Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 588
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 588 · MKE → TPA
departs 3:15 PM CT · arrives 6:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 47%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
41%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 73% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
30%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.09 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.