Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 596
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 596 · LAS → OAK
departs 10:45 PM PT · arrives 12:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+26 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
63%
Arrive 1h+ late
32%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +26 pts in 24h
+26 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +26 pts in 24h
+26 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.