Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 650
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 650 · SDF → TPA
departs 10:50 AM ET · arrives 12:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Other factors
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.