Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 684 · MCO → RDU
departs 8:20 AM ET · arrives 10:05 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Wed 9/30 4%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 8%
Mon 10/5 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.