WN 704 · SAN → FAT

departs 8:32 AM PT · arrives 9:56 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↑ 8am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Arrivals into FAT at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 704 · SAN → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?