Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 754
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 754 · BOS → STL
departs 6:50 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 64%
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,420 ft Visibility 4.4 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.