Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 787
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 787 · BNA → MCO
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 8:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 9/30 30%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.