Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 803
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 803 · OAK → BOI
departs 1:30 PM PT · arrives 4:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 17%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BOI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BOI?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from OAK are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at OAK that day
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
BOI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.