WN 820 · HOU → MEM

departs 3:01 PM CT · arrives 4:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day

↑ 3pm departures from HOU are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MEM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.73 in

MEM (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 820 · HOU → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?