WN 824 · TPA → BUF

departs 6:01 AM ET · arrives 8:56 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

↑ TPA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

BUF (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 824 · TPA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?