WN 827 · BUF → BWI

departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 4:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at BUF that day

↑ 2pm departures from BUF are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.23 in

BWI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 827 · BUF → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?