WN 845 · BUF → TPA

departs 4:31 PM ET · arrives 7:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at BUF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

TPA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 845 · BUF → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?