WN 845 · MDW → BUF

departs 1:21 PM CT · arrives 3:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

BUF (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 845 · MDW → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?