Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 867
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 867 · BWI → AUS
departs 1:50 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 9/30 41%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 29%
Sat 10/3 19%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 1.00 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.