Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 889
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 889 · MCO → BWI
departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 7:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.