WN 898 · PHX → ELP

departs 4:18 PM MT · arrives 6:42 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 898 · PHX → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?