Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 910
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 910 · SDF → MCO
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 19%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.