Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 954 · MDW → HOU
departs 9:40 PM CT · arrives 12:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
77%
chance · ±3 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
77%
Leave 15+ late
69%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 74% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
77%
Yes 77%
No 23%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 66% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.73 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.