WN 965 · PHX → ICT

departs 11:01 AM MT · arrives 3:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ICT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at ICT that day

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ ICT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ICT (destination) Gusts36 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.81 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 965 · PHX → ICT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICT?