YV 4016 · IAD → IND

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 7:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ IND usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4016 · IAD → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?