Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 3405 · PWM → EWR
departs 10:55 AM ET · arrives 12:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at PWM that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.