Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3425
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 3425 · ORD → ROC
departs 6:45 AM CT · arrives 9:37 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 5%
Mon 10/5 4%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
↑
ORD is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 2.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.