YX 3444 · GSP → EWR

departs 5:59 AM ET · arrives 8:12 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↑ GSP is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from GSP are usually not late

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3444 · GSP → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?