Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 3464 · ORD → PIT
departs 9:20 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 20%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
61%
chance · ±3 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
61%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.