YX 3471 · YHZ → EWR

departs 2:55 PM ADT · arrives 4:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

YHZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3471 · YHZ → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?