YX 3478 · CVG → EWR

departs 7:31 AM ET · arrives 9:42 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3478 · CVG → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?