YX 3492 · IAD → RDU

departs 12:52 PM ET · arrives 2:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3492 · IAD → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?