YX 3494 · PWM → IAD

departs 9:55 AM ET · arrives 12:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at PWM that day

↑ PWM is prone to delays

↓ 9am departures from PWM are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3494 · PWM → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?