YX 3498 · ORD → BNA

departs 12:30 PM CT · arrives 2:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

BNA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3498 · ORD → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?